Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E3 0xe3a7…f59e sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$91 (+48%) realized +$88 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip

Net edge+70%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+70.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+87.9%	+70.0%	50%	50%	+168.3%
≤30d	2	+87.9%	+70.0%	50%	50%	+168.3%
≤90d	2	+87.9%	+70.0%	50%	50%	+168.3%
all	2	+87.9%	+70.0%	50%	50%	+168.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+70.0%	50%	+168.3%
10%	+53.8%	50%	+142.6%
15%	+38.9%	50%	+119.2%
20%	+25.3%	50%	+97.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +196% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +88% · $-wt +196% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$103 vs −$10 · ×10.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.31 per $1 lost it wins $10.31

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$141

Realized+$88

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage5d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Over	63¢	68¢	$88	$94	+$6 (+7%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Over	22¢	22¢	$25	$25	+$0 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Over	11¢	10¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 22	$37	+$103	+276%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	63¢	$89	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	22¢	$26	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	11¢	$26	2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$140	4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	26¢	$37	5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	21¢	$10	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.25 · official $141.25 (match) · 6 history records