trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $53 | $53 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $50 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $27 | +$7 | +26% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $2 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 25 | $5 | −$1 | -13% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Dec 24 | $28 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 16 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Nov 19 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? | Oct 17 | $1 | +$1 | +41% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Sep 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? | Aug 27 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? | Aug 26 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Aug 26 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | Aug 26 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 25 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 25 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 24 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Aug 24 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 23 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? | Aug 20 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? | Aug 20 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Aug 20 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 20 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +16.9% | +5.8% | 67% | 67% | -1.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +16.9% | +5.8% | 67% | 67% | -1.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +16.9% | +5.8% | 67% | 67% | -1.6% |
| all | 24 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 54% | 12% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 12% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 12% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 4% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 0% | -32.5% |