Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe39d…7c4e crypto 492 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$280 (-14%) realized −$280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%276W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$166
14 days−$235
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$313
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -18.2% -26.0% 24% 20% -63.9%
≤30d 492 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 49% -24.3%
≤90d 492 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 49% -24.3%
all 492 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 49% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 49% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 42% -31.5%
15% -35.0% 26% -38.2%
20% -41.3% 16% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses276 / 216
Open positions0
Markets (closed)492 / 492
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 492 Trades
no open positions (207 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +285%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$28 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$22 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$31 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1000 history records