Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe398…bcd4 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,048 (+61%) realized +$955 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$1,070
30 days+$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,156
other 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤30d 6 +76.8% +60.0% 67% 67% +72.6%
≤90d 9 +45.1% +31.3% 56% 56% +59.1%
all 9 +45.1% +31.3% 56% 56% +59.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.3% 56% +59.1%
10% +18.7% 56% +43.9%
15% +7.3% 44% +30.0%
20% -3.2% 44% +17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$311 vs −$124 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$955
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage49d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 51¢ 100¢ $102 $200 +$98 (+96%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 36¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $101 +$26 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $153 +$592 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $102 +$78 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $248 +$425 +171%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $99 −$97 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 16 $98 −$97 -98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $298 +$433 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.30 · official $395.31 (match) · 17 history records