Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe396…24b2 other 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$42
sports 24% −$21
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$8
crypto 5% −$5
culture 4% −$4
world 3% −$10
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage134d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $317 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $269 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $328 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $481 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $817 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $559 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $676 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $238 $0 +0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $560 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $213 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $756 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $240 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $564 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $282 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $386 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 5m
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 15h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 18h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 19h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 22h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $17 28h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $17 29h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 40h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 42h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 44h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 46h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 47h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1369 history records