Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E3 0xe391…eea1 sports 231 markets active 2h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,135 (-10%) realized −$3,591 · open −$1,544
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%112W / 117L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$505est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4,934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$892
7 days+$573
14 days−$2,154
30 days−$6,672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$2,878
other 16% −$1,779
world 6% −$1,439
crypto 1% −$116
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -3.3% -12.5% 64% 24% -5.0%
≤30d 172 -24.0% -31.2% 40% 24% -29.1%
≤90d 228 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 36% -19.5%
all 229 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 36% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 36% -19.3%
10% -25.0% 31% -27.0%
15% -32.2% 25% -34.1%
20% -38.9% 17% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$119 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$4,934
Realized−$3,591
Unrealized−$1,544
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses112 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$505
Open positions2
Markets (closed)229 / 231
History coverage705d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5,978 $4,500 −$1,478 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $500 $434 −$66 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $201 +$22 +11%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $201 +$29 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $351 −$351 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $351 +$22 +6%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $350 +$15 +4%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $349 −$348 -100%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $351 +$18 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $332 −$5 -1%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $204 −$12 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $845 −$246 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$45 -45%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $251 +$36 +14%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $251 +$33 +13%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $251 +$24 +9%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $251 −$18 -7%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $250 +$16 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $100 +$88 +88%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $100 +$121 +121%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $250 +$16 +6%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $250 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $303 +$178 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $510 +$865 +170%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $92 +$196 +213%
Set 2 Winner: Bellucci vs Kukushkin Jun 13 $84 +$2 +3%
Set 2 Winner: Collignon vs Dougaz Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $102 −$18 -18%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $352 −$75 -21%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $251 +$36 +14%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $250 +$11 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $100 +$5 +6%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $102 +$48 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6,215 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 90¢ $201 10h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 97¢ $200 12h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 97¢ $200 12h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 87¢ $201 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $200 15h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 88¢ $351 16h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 94¢ $351 16h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 96¢ $350 16h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 95¢ $349 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $328 19h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 95¢ $351 19h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $191 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $239 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $55 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $100 23h
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 30h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $100 31h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 87¢ $251 37h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 88¢ $251 39h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 91¢ $251 39h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken SELL Botic van de Zandschulp 85¢ $232 40h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 91¢ $251 41h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 94¢ $250 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $350 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,933.76 · official $4,933.76 (match) · 643 history records