trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 10¢ | $523 | $417 | −$106 (-20%) |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $300 | $264 | −$36 (-12%) |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? | Yes | 14¢ | 24¢ | $120 | $211 | +$91 (+76%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $145 | $151 | +$7 (+5%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $130 | $129 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $109 | $42 | −$67 (-61%) |
| Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $37 | $0 | −$37 (-100%) |
| Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 1? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $770 | $0 | −$770 (-100%) |
| Will England beat Senegal? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $93 | $0 | −$93 (-100%) |
| Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 2? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $367 | $0 | −$367 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 2? | Dec 20 | $367 | −$367 | -100% |
| Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 1? | Dec 20 | $770 | −$770 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13? | Jun 10 | $200 | −$196 | -98% |
| Will England beat Senegal? | Jun 10 | $93 | −$93 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? | Jun 06 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | Jun 06 | $167 | +$70 | +42% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Jun 06 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Jun 02 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Jun 02 | $133 | −$133 | -100% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? | Jun 02 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2? | Jun 02 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? | Jun 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? | Jun 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | Jun 02 | $824 | −$824 | -100% |
| Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? | Jun 02 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Jun 02 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will there be a US Government shutdown? | Jun 02 | $402 | −$402 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23? | Jun 02 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | May 17 | $45 | −$41 | -91% |
| Will Usyk beat Fury? | Dec 22 | $331 | +$249 | +75% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 22 | $185 | −$185 | -100% |
| Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election? | Dec 22 | $124 | −$124 | -100% |
| Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election? | Dec 22 | $211 | −$211 | -100% |
| Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? | Dec 22 | $212 | −$212 | -100% |
| Will a Democrat win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 22 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 25 | -86.9% | -88.1% | 8% | 8% | -83.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -88.1% | 8% | -83.1% |
| 10% | -89.3% | 8% | -84.7% |
| 15% | -90.3% | 8% | -86.2% |
| 20% | -91.3% | 4% | -87.5% |