Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe38b…af50 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,368 (-39%) realized −$2,354 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%21W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$1,391
other 23% +$244
sports 22% −$1,085
economics 7% −$145
politics 2% −$1
world 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -48.8% -53.7% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 25 -20.7% -28.2% 40% 36% -18.3%
all 67 -27.7% -34.6% 31% 28% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 28% -50.6%
10% -40.8% 24% -55.3%
15% -46.6% 24% -59.6%
20% -51.8% 22% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$66 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized−$2,354
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)67 / 75
History coverage532d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 26 $691 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 30 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 20 $40 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 10 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 10 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 10 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on September 26? Apr 08 $315 −$315 -100%
NCAA Tournament: 1 seed knocked out before round of 16? Apr 08 $200 +$209 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$30 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$14 +283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 18 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$50 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 18 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 18 $50 −$20 -39%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? Mar 18 $564 −$500 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 17 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 17 $25 +$13 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 17 $10 +$12 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 17 $20 +$33 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 17 $20 +$25 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 17 $65 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 43m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 37¢ $103 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 47h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18 BUY 8¢ $12 47h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 25d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $707 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $18 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 51d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $21 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $20 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 62d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 62d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $8 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $11 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.94 · official $365.94 (match) · 183 history records