Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe38b…8996 crypto 309 markets active 1h ago coverage 765d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,844 (-3%) realized −$4,841 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate76%231W / 72L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$83
14 days+$220
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$3,947
other 26% +$116
sports 20% −$1,004
world 4% $0
tech 2% +$61
politics 0% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.2% +28.7% 100% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 8 +3.7% -6.2% 75% 50% -5.5%
≤90d 22 -21.9% -29.3% 64% 36% -19.2%
all 303 -0.1% -9.6% 76% 12% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 12% -12.5%
10% -18.3% 8% -20.8%
15% -26.2% 6% -28.5%
20% -33.4% 4% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$149 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

765d coverage
Net worth$1,209
Realized−$4,841
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses231 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions6
Markets (closed)303 / 309
History coverage765d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 45¢ 39¢ $470 $407 −$63 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 10¢ $296 $387 +$91 (+31%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? No 77¢ 88¢ $157 $179 +$22 (+14%)
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in June? No 44¢ 96¢ $22 $48 +$26 (+121%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) No 50¢ 97¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 23 $1,004 +$75 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $11 +$8 +77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$21 +72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,760 +$126 +3%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 12 $117 +$40 +34%
Will Shubman Gill win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $11 +$4 +35%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $244 −$244 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $51 +$7 +13%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $41 +$4 +10%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $93 +$28 +30%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $210 +$24 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 04 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $495 +$8 +2%
Will Ethena dip to $0.08 in March? Apr 01 $196 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $8 in March? Apr 01 $430 +$14 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 31 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 04 $169 +$126 +74%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $6,636 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Mar 02 $14 $0 +3%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Mar 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of February? Mar 01 $149 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of February? Mar 01 $798 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February? Feb 27 $296 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of February? Feb 27 $331 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 21 $805 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Feb 19 $432 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $240 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on February 17? Feb 19 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 17 $75 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 17 $11 −$4 -33%
T20 World Cup: England vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 15 $912 +$38 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Feb 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $120 −$120 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Oman (Game 1) Feb 12 $3 +$1 +21%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25? Feb 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 22? Feb 11 $11 −$2 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 25? Feb 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Feb 11 $110 −$108 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 31¢ $92 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 31¢ $82 2h
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? BUY No 77¢ $158 22h
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 90¢ $1,079 25h
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 44h
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 44h
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 44h
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $34 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 83¢ $1,003 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 62¢ $305 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 97¢ $19 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 53¢ $11 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $82 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $22 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $173 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $924 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $22 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $22 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $22 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $494 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $26 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $944 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $81 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $859 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $942 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $940 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,209.33 · official $1,209.43 (match) · 1368 history records