Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe385…b0c4 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (3019 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized +$219 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$975per market
Trades / day3018.8pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$101
politics 34% +$20
world 13% +$97
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3019 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.4% -8.3% 24% 5% -9.0%
≤30d 37 +1.4% -8.3% 24% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 37 +1.4% -8.3% 24% 5% -9.0%
all 37 +1.4% -8.3% 24% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3018.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 5% -9.0%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$595) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
39.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$0 · ×252.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×90.98 per $1 lost it wins $90.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$477
Realized+$219
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)37 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$975
Trades / day3018.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $349 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $1,196 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $72 +$13 +18%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $14,526 +$20 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $298 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $1,247 +$31 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $524 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $635 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,223 +$66 +2%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,421 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $345 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $120 +$30 +25%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $216 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12,426 +$24 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $595 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $1,177 +$37 +3%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $707 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $56 0m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 4m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 5m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 11m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 11m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 11m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 18m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 26m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 28m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 28m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 28m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 29m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 30m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.46 · official $476.65 (match) · 3500 history records