trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 7¢ | $11 | $12 | +$1 (+7%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 14¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+32%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 52¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 09 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 09 | $32 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Apr 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw | Apr 04 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between | Apr 01 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Dillon Danis win the match? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? | Mar 22 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 44% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 44% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 44% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 21 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 57% | 0% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.8% | 0% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 0% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -25.5% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.8% | 0% | -33.0% |