Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe381…d3bb weather 32 markets active 4d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$117 (+7%) realized +$120 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$16
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$150
weather 4% −$37
politics 2% $0
world 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -54.0% -58.4% 12% 12% -71.0%
≤30d 18 -51.1% -55.7% 17% 17% -64.6%
≤90d 18 -51.1% -55.7% 17% 17% -64.6%
all 31 -43.6% -48.9% 23% 23% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 23% -2.8%
10% -53.8% 13% -12.1%
15% -58.3% 10% -20.6%
20% -62.4% 6% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$2 · ×11.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage156d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$7 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +41%
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 25 $1,472 +$158 +11%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? Feb 03 $2 $0 -10%
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" this week? (February 1) Feb 02 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by Ma Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31 Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Susie Wiles be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files by March 3 Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $1 $0 -0%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 31 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "World Peace" this week? (February 1) Jan 29 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Trump say "Wall Street" this week? (February 1) Jan 28 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 24 $22 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.66 · official $14.66 (match) · 99 history records