Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe381…0b0a other 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-13%) realized −$69 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$3
world 19% −$47
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-62.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -53.3% -57.7% 0% 0% -78.5%
≤30d 4 -53.3% -57.7% 0% 0% -78.5%
≤90d 6 -68.9% -71.8% 0% 0% -85.6%
all 15 -58.1% -62.1% 13% 13% -55.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.1% 13% -55.4%
10% -65.7% 13% -59.6%
15% -69.0% 13% -63.5%
20% -72.1% 13% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage156d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $72 $96 +$25 (+34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $27 −$27 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $14 +$8 +59%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 21 $3 $0 -15%
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 19 $18 +$18 +98%
Will Egypt win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 38h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 94d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 106d
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 106d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 3¢ $1 106d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 106d
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 106d
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 107d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $88 147d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $55 147d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 147d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $53 147d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $35 147d
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 149d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 149d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 155d
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.85 · official $105.50 (match) · 206 history records