Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe37e…d3fc politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
other 23% +$4
politics 23% $0
sports 8% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.3% -7.4% 20% 20% -7.6%
≤30d 12 +2.2% -7.5% 33% 17% -7.9%
≤90d 12 +2.2% -7.5% 33% 17% -7.9%
all 44 +0.5% -9.0% 27% 11% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 11% -8.5%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage271d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $16 +$3 +17%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $24 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $36 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $6 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $6 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 18 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $2 $0 +19%
Will the US loose jobs in September? Oct 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $6 $0 -5%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $36 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $11 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $22 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $33 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $29 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $8 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $15 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $18 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $36 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $24 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $33 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $33 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $7 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $26 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $33 15d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 15d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 15d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.20 · official $36.00 (match) · 314 history records