Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe37c…07b4 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+5%) realized +$66 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 48% -12.6%
≤30d 25 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 48% -12.6%
≤90d 25 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 48% -12.6%
all 25 -3.0% -12.3% 68% 48% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 48% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 40% -20.9%
15% -28.3% 32% -28.6%
20% -35.3% 16% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$32 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 81¢ 70¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $127 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $76 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $77 −$50 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $77 +$65 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$28 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $24 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $27 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $35 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $53 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $34 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $28 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $27 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.64 · official $46.42 · 77 history records