Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe37c…ef29 crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,726 (+31%) realized +$1,177 · open +$549
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%66W / 63L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day58.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,431
7 days+$1,640
14 days+$1,640
30 days+$1,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,798
crypto 42% +$356
sports 4% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -9.1% -17.7% 51% 40% +24.1%
≤30d 129 -9.1% -17.7% 51% 40% +24.1%
≤90d 129 -9.1% -17.7% 51% 40% +24.1%
all 129 -9.1% -17.7% 51% 40% +24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 40% +24.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 26% +12.2%
15% -32.8% 16% +1.4%
20% -39.4% 10% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$11 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,742
Realized+$1,177
Unrealized+$549
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses66 / 63
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage8d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day58.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $1,193 $1,742 +$549 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $527 +$1,533 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $614 +$68 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $453 +$117 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $94 −$25 -27%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$9 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$29 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$126 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$2 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $203 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $493 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $527 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $571 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $42 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $42 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $453 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $22 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $18 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,741.68 · official $1,741.68 (match) · 603 history records