Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe37b…f98e world 74 markets active 4h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$9
politics 19% +$2
other 12% $0
sports 10% −$12
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 21 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 5% -8.6%
≤90d 62 +0.1% -9.4% 37% 2% -9.1%
all 71 -3.0% -12.3% 35% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage535d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $108 +$4 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $134 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $12 −$2 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $15 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $15 −$3 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $34 +$11 +32%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $70 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $84 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $31 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $7 $0 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $31 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $68 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $32 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $15 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $43 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $48 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $43 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $0.00 · 279 history records