Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe378…148e other 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,298 (-6%) realized −$1,333 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%204W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$258
14 days−$25
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$706
crypto 16% −$193
sports 13% −$398
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 33% -43.0%
≤30d 49 -8.7% -17.4% 69% 57% -15.2%
≤90d 162 -11.2% -19.6% 67% 51% -19.0%
all 307 -5.5% -14.5% 66% 51% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 51% -15.3%
10% -22.7% 35% -23.4%
15% -30.1% 22% -30.8%
20% -37.0% 15% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$51 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$1,333
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses204 / 103
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 308
History coverage153d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $114 $149 +$35 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $125 −$123 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $115 +$11 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $115 −$113 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $114 +$48 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $115 +$36 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $114 +$12 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $95 +$16 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $78 +$17 +22%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $101 −$24 -24%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $82 +$19 +23%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $68 +$16 +23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $57 +$11 +18%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $48 +$9 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $81 +$45 +56%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $81 +$23 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $164 +$16 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $127 +$37 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $118 +$8 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $91 +$28 +30%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $58 +$18 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $58 −$58 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $116 −$113 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $116 +$135 +116%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $115 −$113 -98%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $115 −$114 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $111 −$85 -77%
Will Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw? May 24 $111 +$25 +22%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $81 +$43 +53%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $63 +$20 +31%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $150 +$12 +8%
Bilbao Basket vs. Basquet Girona May 24 $115 +$35 +31%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $65 +$13 +20%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $116 +$24 +21%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $89 +$3 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $182 +$79 +43%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $115 +$67 +59%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $141 +$22 +16%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $115 +$26 +23%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $101 +$4 +4%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $115 +$103 +89%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $115 −$113 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $115 +$17 +14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $116 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $115 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $125 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $115 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $115 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $162 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $114 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $150 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 75¢ $115 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 82¢ $127 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 73¢ $114 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $95 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 81¢ $78 8d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 62¢ $77 8d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 80¢ $101 8d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki SELL Vitaliy Sachko 99¢ $101 8d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki BUY Vitaliy Sachko 80¢ $82 8d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane SELL Nuno Borges 99¢ $84 8d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane BUY Nuno Borges 80¢ $68 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $57 8d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 8d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $48 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 98¢ $126 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 9d
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 98¢ $103 9d
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 92¢ $180 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.98 · official $148.98 (match) · 642 history records