Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe375…803a crypto 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+1%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%377W / 7L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$38
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$85
other 2% +$3
finance 2% −$18
sports 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 384 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 384 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.3%
all 384 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 0% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses377 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)384 / 386
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.23 · official $59.29 (match) · 774 history records