Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe373…3736 sports 381 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,243 (-6%) realized −$1,252 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%222W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$188
14 days−$149
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$108
politics 19% −$538
other 19% −$386
world 15% −$85
finance 6% +$19
crypto 4% +$26
economics 2% −$349
weather 1% +$7
culture 0% +$6
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -24.1% -31.3% 64% 27% -22.5%
≤30d 56 +6.7% -3.5% 71% 23% -10.5%
≤90d 219 -39.5% -45.3% 37% 16% -21.0%
all 379 -11.1% -19.5% 59% 37% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -14.7%
10% -27.2% 27% -22.9%
15% -34.3% 21% -30.3%
20% -40.7% 16% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$1,252
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses222 / 157
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)379 / 381
History coverage259d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will David Raya record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 96¢ $71 $80 +$9 (+13%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 24 $138 +$2 +2%
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio Jun 24 $270 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $51 +$3 +6%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $262 +$35 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $217 −$105 -48%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor Jun 19 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $159 −$121 -76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $132 +$4 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$4 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $105 +$105 +100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $226 +$8 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $31 −$4 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $155 +$2 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $164 +$3 +2%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 11 $82 −$80 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $120 +$5 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $81 +$21 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 09 $123 +$3 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $194 +$4 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $144 +$16 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $7 +$18 +262%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $23 +$14 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $23 +$14 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $23 +$20 +86%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $211 +$3 +1%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $33 −$2 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $138 +$3 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $198 +$3 +2%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $205 +$3 +2%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $150 +$6 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $210 +$5 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $224 +$10 +5%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 31 $97 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $186 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $210 +$5 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $174 +$1 +1%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele May 29 $9 +$32 +339%
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary May 29 $84 −$62 -74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $417 +$16 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 98¢ $141 36m
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 96¢ $138 1h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio SELL No 46¢ $75 2h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio SELL No 46¢ $27 2h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio SELL No 46¢ $13 2h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio SELL No 46¢ $36 2h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio SELL No 46¢ $124 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 54¢ $54 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY No 45¢ $270 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $11 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.76 · official $79.51 (match) · 1225 history records