Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe373…4807 sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized −$10 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%3W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$19
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$6
other 47% −$33
world 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -7.3% -16.2% 5% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 46 -7.5% -16.3% 7% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 46 -7.5% -16.3% 7% 0% -13.6%
all 46 -7.5% -16.3% 7% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 0% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 0% -21.8%
15% -31.6% 0% -29.4%
20% -38.3% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses3 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 41¢ 23¢ $20 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 34¢ 17¢ $17 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Kayla McBride have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will KT Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $18 $0 -1%
Will Scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $9 −$3 -37%
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Paige Bueckers have the highest three point percentage in the WNB Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Will Sarah Ashlee Barker have the highest three point percentage in th Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Aneesah Morrow have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 202 Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Sabrina Ionescu have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 202 Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Chennedy Carter have the highest three point percentage in the WN Jun 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will Brazil go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 15 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Flau'jae Johnson have the highest blocks per game in the WNBA 202 Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will A'ja Wilson have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kiki Iriafen have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will Kamilla Cardoso have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 20 Jun 15 $1 $0 -29%
Will Jovana Nogic have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA Jun 15 $0 $0 -3%
Will Nia Coffey have the highest blocks per game in the WNBA 2026 regu Jun 15 $19 $0 -2%
Will Chennedy Carter have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -2%
Will Caitlin Clark have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA Jun 15 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Azzi Fudd have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA 202 Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will Sonia Citron have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 re Jun 15 $0 $0 -3%
Will Emily Engstler have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 -24%
Will Olivia Miles have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 re Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Alyssa Thomas have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 15 $0 $0 -4%
Will Aliyah Boston have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 15 $0 $0 +4%
Will Gabby Williams have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will Breanna Stewart have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 20 Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Angel Reese have the highest blocks per game in the WNBA 2026 reg Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Nyara Sabally have the highest blocks per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Shakira Austin have the highest blocks per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rhyne Howard have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 re Jun 14 $16 −$2 -9%
Will Jordin Canada have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $6 $0 -7%
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $12 $0 -2%
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $9 $0 -5%
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will KT Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 SELL Yes 23¢ $4 17m
Will KT Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $5 19m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 24m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 25m
Will Scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 1h
Will Scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2h
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 2h
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 36¢ $18 2h
Will Kayla McBride have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 r BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 52¢ $26 10h
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 54¢ $27 10h
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 35¢ $18 13h
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 26¢ $1 15h
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 26¢ $1 16h
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Paige Bueckers have the highest three point percentage in the WNB SELL Yes 10¢ $0 20h
Will Sarah Ashlee Barker have the highest three point percentage in th SELL Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Will Sarah Ashlee Barker have the highest three point percentage in th BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Will Paige Bueckers have the highest three point percentage in the WNB BUY Yes 10¢ $0 20h
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Paige Bueckers have the highest three point percentage in the WNB SELL Yes 10¢ $0 20h
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will Paige Bueckers have the highest three point percentage in the WNB BUY Yes 10¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.18 · official $20.18 (match) · 190 history records