Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe372…2d51 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized −$13 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$22
sports 14% −$3
crypto 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.7% -1.7% 64% 64% +13.3%
≤30d 11 +8.7% -1.7% 64% 64% +13.3%
≤90d 11 +8.7% -1.7% 64% 64% +13.3%
all 11 +8.7% -1.7% 64% 64% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 64% +13.3%
10% -11.1% 36% +2.5%
15% -19.7% 27% -7.4%
20% -27.5% 18% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+0%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.75 · official $79.82 (match) · 24 history records