Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe36f…0b21
world · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage518d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 70¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $26 +$4 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $245 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $38 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $52 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $23 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $563 −$3 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $20 $0 -2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $271 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $14 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $292 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 23 $8 −$8 -95%
New Mexico vs. Nevada Mar 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $22 $0 -2%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 04 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? Mar 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks Mar 04 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 10? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Aliskerov vs. Muniz Mar 04 $12 $0 -2%
Taylor Swift shown O/U 7.5 times on broadcast? Feb 10 $3 +$3 +133%
Will the January unemployment rate be less than or equal to 4.0%? Feb 09 $3 +$9 +270%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 7? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Less than 350 Detainers Lodged in next ICE update? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 03 $2 +$7 +475%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 30 $6 $0 +4%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 24 $2 +$1 +48%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 23 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% +$1
other 17% +$6
sports 3% −$5
politics 2% −$8
finance 1% $0
weather 0% −$10
economics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $20 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $25 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $6 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $20 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $10 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $17 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.7% -6.2% 75% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 17 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 10% -9.4%
all 39 +9.4% -1.0% 46% 18% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 18% -9.8%
10% -10.5% 13% -18.4%
15% -19.2% 13% -26.3%
20% -27.1% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.29 · official $32.99 (match) · 154 history records