Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe36b…f873 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$54 (+31%) realized +$66 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$46
sports 29% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +53.9%
≤30d 1 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +53.9%
≤90d 1 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +53.9%
all 1 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.9% 100% +53.9%
10% +39.2% 100% +39.2%
15% +25.7% 100% +25.7%
20% +13.4% 100% +13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 45¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 55¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Yes 40¢ 41¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$53 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $20 57m
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 1h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $76 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.60 · official $82.60 (match) · 9 history records