Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe36a…ae58 sports 982 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$174 (-1%) realized −$151 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%516W / 594L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day91.5pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$345
7 days−$370
14 days−$410
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$436
other 37% −$199
crypto 3% −$91
world 0% −$5
weather 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 311 -66.8% -70.0% 18% 15% -32.5%
≤30d 1059 -15.5% -23.6% 47% 37% -9.5%
≤90d 1110 -16.5% -24.5% 46% 36% -10.2%
all 1110 -16.5% -24.5% 46% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 36% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 28% -18.8%
15% -38.3% 23% -26.6%
20% -44.4% 17% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses516 / 594
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1110 / 982
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day91.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 70¢ 69¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 58¢ 94¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+63%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 86¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Mees Rottgering 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Katerina Siniakova 35¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 461 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SS Juve Stabia vs. AC Monza: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ostrava: Rudolf Molleker vs Henri Squire Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Kilmarnock FC vs. Dundee FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Vitória SC vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. SSC Bari: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Santos: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Ryan Dickerson Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sporting CP vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Sh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mumbai City FC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Tunis: Maxim Mrva vs Federico Cina Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Katie Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Südtirol vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Kayserispor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
East Bengal FC vs. Punjab FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Diane Parry Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 35¢ $2 6m
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 53¢ $3 6m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 12¢ $1 6m
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $2 6m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 21¢ $1 6m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 27¢ $1 6m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $2 9m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $3 9m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $2 9m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $2 9m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Mees Rottgering 36¢ $2 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $3 54m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $2 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $2 54m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $2 54m
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $2 54m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $2 54m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $2 54m
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $3 54m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 70¢ $3 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 70¢ $3 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 70¢ $3 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 70¢ $3 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 70¢ $3 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $1 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.13 · official $127.13 (match) · 3500 history records