Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe365…27b0 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$2
world 24% +$1
politics 24% $0
sports 18% +$1
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -1.6% -11.0% 19% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage269d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $23 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $28 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Dec 21 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $31 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $31 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $31 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $31 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $29 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $29 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $29 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $28 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $28 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $4 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $24 23d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $3 177d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL Yes 1¢ $0 178d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 181d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $25 183d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $3 258d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $6 258d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL No 99¢ $6 259d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? BUY No 99¢ $6 259d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 259d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 259d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 259d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 259d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records