Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe364…a4b5
crypto · 18 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$139 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open −$114
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$386
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage34d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $500 $386 −$114 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 10 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 10 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 10 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 10 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 10 $11 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$114
crypto 25% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $11 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 17 -37.3% -43.3% 47% 41% -25.1%
all 17 -37.3% -43.3% 47% 41% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 41% -25.1%
10% -48.7% 29% -32.3%
15% -53.7% 18% -38.8%
20% -58.2% 6% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.59 · official $385.59 (match) · 39 history records