Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe364…4ef3 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$141 (+13%) realized +$291 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$304
14 days+$298
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$132
sports 12% +$52
world 6% $0
crypto 4% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+67.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +116.8% +96.1% 64% 64% +65.9%
≤30d 14 +85.3% +67.6% 57% 57% +36.6%
≤90d 14 +85.3% +67.6% 57% 57% +36.6%
all 14 +85.3% +67.6% 57% 57% +36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +67.6% 57% +36.6%
10% +51.6% 57% +23.6%
15% +36.9% 57% +11.6%
20% +23.5% 57% +0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +112% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$36 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 32¢ $300 $150 −$150 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $15 +$111 +719%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$43 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 +$52 +203%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$19 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$102 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$17 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.00 · official $161.72 · 26 history records