Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe362…bd00 politics 376 markets active 2h ago coverage 674d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 674d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,440 (+5%) realized +$18,527 · open −$87
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate51%189W / 179L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,063per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$7,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days−$482
14 days−$1,664
30 days−$1,736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$5,511
finance 24% −$4,502
economics 15% −$2,265
politics 12% +$11,959
other 11% +$1,365
tech 5% +$4,772
crypto 3% +$1,226
sports 1% +$77
culture 0% −$8
weather 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 25% -40.1%
≤30d 23 -20.1% -27.7% 52% 13% -18.7%
≤90d 138 -7.4% -16.2% 58% 17% -9.6%
all 368 -11.7% -20.1% 51% 23% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 23% -5.3%
10% -27.8% 15% -14.3%
15% -34.7% 10% -22.6%
20% -41.1% 6% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$575) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$129 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

674d coverage
Net worth$7,077
Realized+$18,527
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses189 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)368 / 376
History coverage674d ⚠
Avg bet$1,063
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $4,124 $4,425 +$301 (+7%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 71¢ 78¢ $1,478 $1,614 +$136 (+9%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $1,324 $971 −$352 (-27%)
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ $86 $3 −$83 (-96%)
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 56¢ $84 $3 −$81 (-96%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 11¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 18 $40 −$2 -6%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 18 $63 −$9 -15%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $196 +$156 +80%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA Jun 18 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $439 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $61 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $630 −$630 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $299 −$79 -26%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $316 −$312 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $165 +$19 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $284 +$25 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $897 +$5 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 11 $758 −$35 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1,042 +$4 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $1,204 +$3 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $884 −$598 -68%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $270 −$213 -79%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $413 +$33 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $950 +$41 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $4,512 +$363 +8%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 21 $3,237 −$510 -16%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $3,153 +$14 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $270 −$20 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 18 $913 +$71 +8%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 16 $1,783 +$24 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 14 $2,728 −$428 -16%
Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? May 14 $5 +$54 +1116%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $5,598 +$209 +4%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? May 05 $20 $0 +2%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 05 $1,607 +$42 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 03 $458 +$28 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 03 $330 +$20 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 03 $3,243 −$364 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 02 $913 +$24 +3%
Will Trump say "Military" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $55 +$61 +112%
Will Trump say "Deduction" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $16 +$5 +30%
Chirayu Rana fired? May 01 $183 −$33 -18%
Will Trump say "Fat" at The Villages on May 1? Apr 30 $75 −$74 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $180 −$19 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 30 $10,074 +$251 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $7,788 −$7,750 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 29 $6,651 +$199 +3%
Will Keir Starmer say "Friendship" during the next Prime Minister's Qu Apr 29 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Keir Starmer say "Tolerance" during the next Prime Minister's Que Apr 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 29 $24,357 +$24 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $7,195 +$659 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $70 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $86 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $60 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $175 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 91¢ $457 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $111 2h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $122 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $940 2h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 64¢ $4 20h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 59¢ $11 21h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA SELL Yes 76¢ $19 21h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 59¢ $18 21h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA SELL Yes 77¢ $19 21h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 58¢ $27 21h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World SELL Yes 57¢ $5 21h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 57¢ $17 21h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 37¢ $8 21h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 80¢ $20 21h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World SELL Yes 75¢ $48 21h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast F BUY Yes 41¢ $29 21h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA BUY Yes 92¢ $28 21h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 80¢ $20 26h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 77¢ $17 26h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 77¢ $16 26h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 76¢ $4 26h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $189 26h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $47 26h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL Yes 99¢ $352 26h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 51¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,077.08 · official $7,077.09 (match) · 3473 history records