Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E3 0xe35b…d8d0 sports 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,170 (+3%) realized +$1,188 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%61W / 86L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$157
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$190
sports 50% +$1,401
crypto 0% −$67
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +43.0% +29.4% 100% 100% +24.8%
≤30d 3 +43.0% +29.4% 100% 100% +24.8%
≤90d 86 -6.5% -15.4% 43% 43% -8.6%
all 147 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 41% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 41% -6.4%
10% -25.1% 41% -15.3%
15% -32.3% 41% -23.5%
20% -38.9% 36% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$326 vs −$218 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1,188
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses61 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage113d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 31¢ $54 $37 −$17 (-31%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $201 +$46 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $112 +$41 +36%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $62 −$61 -99%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $315 −$314 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $500 −$472 -94%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $951 −$940 -99%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $543 −$543 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $310 +$197 +64%
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Will Cádiz CF vs. Córdoba CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $237 −$232 -98%
1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $860 +$419 +49%
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $500 +$293 +59%
Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $986 +$588 +60%
Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5) Apr 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 03 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Leicester City FC vs. Preston North End FC end in a draw? Apr 03 $383 +$584 +152%
Vitória SC vs. CD Tondela: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $998 −$998 -100%
Will Vitória SC vs. CD Tondela end in a draw? Apr 03 $350 −$342 -98%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $231 −$226 -98%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $122 +$458 +376%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $772 −$515 -67%
West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $259 +$224 +87%
Will Burton Albion FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Crewe Alexandra FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $200 −$197 -98%
Oxford United FC vs. Hull City AFC: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $313 +$115 +37%
Rotherham United FC vs. Stevenage FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $655 −$655 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw? Apr 03 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Doncaster Rovers FC vs. Mansfield Town FC end in a draw? Apr 03 $100 −$98 -98%
CD Leganés vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $165 −$165 -100%
CD Leganés vs. Real Zaragoza: Both Teams to Score Apr 02 $1,025 +$741 +72%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $368 +$165 +45%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Apr 02 $247 −$247 -100%
Spread: SD Eibar (-1.5) Apr 02 $84 −$84 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Granada CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $68 +$164 +241%
Will Real Racing Club vs. Real Sporting de Gijón end in a draw? Apr 01 $401 −$319 -80%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Real Racing Club vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $212 +$257 +122%
Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $50 +$60 +121%
SD Huesca vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $50 +$51 +102%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $890 +$1,072 +120%
Czechia vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $2,213 +$1,244 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 30m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $0 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $54 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 79¢ $109 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $69 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $247 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 81¢ $201 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $172 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $152 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $112 3d
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 51d
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 61¢ $42 51d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 67d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes $1 71d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 43¢ $315 71d
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 78d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes $28 78d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 62¢ $951 78d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 78d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 78d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 55¢ $500 78d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 96¢ $200 78d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 96¢ $200 78d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 96¢ $107 78d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $310 78d
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 78d
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 78d
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 78d
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.50 · official $50.50 (match) · 377 history records