Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe355…f63b other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$7
other 23% −$3
politics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -1.7% -11.1% 13% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 15 -1.7% -11.1% 13% 0% -11.2%
all 34 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 3% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -11.4%
10% -20.5% 3% -19.9%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage469d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $29 −$5 -18%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $29 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +30%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $4 $0 -3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $9 $0 +4%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $26 28m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 72¢ $17 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $17 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $24 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $23 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $29 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $29 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $32 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $32 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $4 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $21 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records