Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe34d…b134 politics 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$80 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate20%19W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$14
other 26% +$41
politics 19% −$1
tech 13% −$3
sports 5% −$3
finance 4% +$4
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% −$2
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.6% -16.4% 25% 12% -2.1%
≤30d 42 -7.2% -16.0% 7% 5% -6.6%
≤90d 84 -7.0% -15.9% 18% 5% -8.4%
all 94 -6.9% -15.8% 20% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 4% -8.6%
10% -23.8% 3% -17.3%
15% -31.2% 2% -25.3%
20% -37.9% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses19 / 75
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)94 / 101
History coverage154d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $270 $268 −$3 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $132 $130 −$3 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $11 $1 −$10 (-89%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $8 $1 −$7 (-89%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $287 −$19 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $333 +$167 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $49 $0 -1%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $13 $0 -2%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -4%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $14 −$2 -14%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 07 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 05 $15 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 05 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $27 −$2 -7%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? May 31 $15 $0 -3%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? May 31 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? May 31 $13 −$3 -24%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? May 31 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? May 31 $15 $0 -1%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? May 31 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by July 31? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? May 31 $9 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? May 31 $2 $0 -9%
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be between 3% an May 28 $33 −$5 -17%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in May? May 28 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 28 $4 $0 -4%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in May? May 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 28 $38 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 22 $88 −$2 -3%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 22 $12 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? May 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $156 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $274 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $135 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $268 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $287 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 4d
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 42¢ $7 4d
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 42¢ $7 4d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No $4 4d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No $4 4d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 90¢ $45 4d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 90¢ $45 4d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL No 53¢ $10 4d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 53¢ $11 4d
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? SELL No 44¢ $9 4d
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? BUY No 45¢ $9 4d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $61 4d
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 11d
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 11d
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 11d
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 11d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $9 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $9 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $10 16d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $12 16d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $18 16d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $10 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.38 · official $402.38 (match) · 367 history records