Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E3 0xe34b…a233 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$394 (+25%) realized +$586 · open −$192

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR91%break-even

Win rate91%10W / 1L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$131per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$187

7 days+$161

14 days+$345

30 days+$411

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +91%

net ROI/market (all)+25.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+22.6%	+10.9%	86%	86%	+11.1%
≤30d	10	+38.3%	+25.1%	90%	90%	+25.6%
≤90d	10	+38.3%	+25.1%	90%	90%	+25.6%
all	11	+39.1%	+25.9%	91%	91%	+26.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.9%	91%	+26.3%
10%	+13.8%	73%	+14.2%
15%	+2.8%	73%	+3.2%
20%	-7.3%	27%	-6.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 40% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$56 vs −$100 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage

Net worth$208

Realized+$586

Unrealized−$192

Win rate (resolved)91%

Wins / losses10 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage141d

Avg bet$131

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	38¢	$400	$208	−$192 (-48%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$101	+$77	+76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$100	+$15	+14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$101	+$80	+79%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$100	+$15	+14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$101	+$38	+38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$36	+36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$142	+140%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$42	+42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$151	+$66	+44%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Feb 10	$110	+$52	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$403	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$100	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$100	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	72¢	$101	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$101	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	41¢	$102	10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$151	18d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	BUY Seahawks	68¢	$110	140d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.11 · official $208.11 (match) · 22 history records