Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe349…282f sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$499 (-41%) realized −$496 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -56.9%
≤30d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -56.9%
≤90d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -56.9%
all 9 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 33% -56.9%
10% -47.0% 22% -61.1%
15% -52.1% 22% -64.8%
20% -56.8% 11% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$116 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$496
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 74¢ $137 $138 +$1 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 76¢ 74¢ $115 $111 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$40 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $61 +$139 +226%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $173 −$172 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $159 −$158 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $15 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $100 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $138 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $100 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $100 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $43 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $173 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $21 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $27 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $27 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $159 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $61 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $111 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $37 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $67 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.17 · official $249.16 (match) · 21 history records