Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe347…b438
other · 869 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12,162 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,615 · open −$1,230
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,084
Realized−$11,615
Unrealized−$1,230
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses45 / 97
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions480
Markets (closed)142 / 869
History coverage12d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day264.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 480 History 142 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,200
7 days−$8,177
14 days−$11,615
30 days−$11,615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? No 79¢ 96¢ $141 $171 +$30 (+21%)
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? No 71¢ 79¢ $127 $141 +$14 (+11%)
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 2¢ 92¢ $2 $75 +$73 (+3600%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 3¢ 54¢ $4 $71 +$67 (+1682%)
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 4¢ 36¢ $5 $51 +$46 (+922%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 79¢ $2 $49 +$47 (+1875%)
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? No 48¢ 26¢ $86 $47 −$39 (-46%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 3¢ 26¢ $5 $41 +$36 (+742%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $13 $29 +$16 (+130%)
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $5 $22 +$17 (+349%)
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 2¢ 36¢ $1 $20 +$19 (+1579%)
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-40%)
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+28%)
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+855%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 33¢ 72¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+117%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+27%)
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 3¢ 32¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+1167%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-28%)
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+291%)
Will Carson Benge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$4 (+206%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Seoul have between 130-140mm of precipitation in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 +132%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +100%
Will Choi Min-ho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 +$39 +78750%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 +801%
Will Min Hyung-bae win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1700%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +2803%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 12 $0 $0 +2344%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 12 $0 $0 +2837%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 +8%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 12 $0 $0 +359%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $207 +$133 +64%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $135 +$16 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $111 +$103 +92%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 11 $2 −$2 -88%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $488 −$405 -83%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $591 −$545 -92%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $164 −$163 -100%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $164 −$144 -88%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $894 −$892 -100%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 11 $153 −$152 -99%
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebe Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 10 $164 −$144 -88%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? Jun 10 $371 −$362 -97%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $52 +$11 +21%
Trinidad and Tobago leading at halftime? Jun 09 $62 +$1 +1%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $14 −$9 -65%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control O Jun 09 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $152 −$147 -97%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $164 −$145 -88%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? Jun 09 $371 −$369 -99%
Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $185 −$34 -18%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $63 −$59 -95%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $36 +$8 +23%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $407 −$160 -39%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $163 −$143 -87%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $152 −$128 -84%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $164 −$144 -88%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $164 −$144 -88%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $164 −$144 -88%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $163 −$143 -87%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 09 $37 −$18 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$7,540
politics 20% −$2,222
tech 12% −$3,322
sports 8% +$59
culture 6% +$9
world 4% −$202
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% +$337
economics 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Shea Theodore win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 79¢ $4 34m
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47m
Will Nancy Dyson be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Robert Wessels win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 96¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 2h
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 40¢ $0 2h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 2h
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $128 3h
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 79¢ $142 3h
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $86 3h
Will Joël Kiassumbua record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 15¢ $0 3h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 16¢ $7 3h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+115.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +125.2% +103.7% 31% 24% -77.2%
≤30d 142 +138.5% +115.8% 32% 25% -79.3%
≤90d 142 +138.5% +115.8% 32% 25% -79.3%
all 142 +138.5% +115.8% 32% 25% -79.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover264.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +115.8% 25% -79.3%
10% ← realistic here +95.2% 23% -81.2%
15% +76.3% 20% -83.1%
20% +59.0% 20% -84.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,084.28 · official $1,070.94 · 3500 history records