Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe347…a5fe world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
sports 29% −$1
other 16% $0
culture 14% −$1
politics 4% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 12% -9.0%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 24% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 24% 6% -9.5%
all 33 -1.1% -10.6% 39% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage460d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $13 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $43 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +21%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 −$2 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $4 $0 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $4 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $14 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $1 $0 -44%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $165 −$1 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $152 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $13 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $13 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $9 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $2 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $31 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $43 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $19 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.04 · official $40.04 (match) · 83 history records