Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe346…0e40 other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$29
politics 23% −$9
sports 5% −$3
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 98 -4.8% -13.9% 11% 8% -9.7%
all 98 -4.8% -13.9% 11% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 8% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 7% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage90d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $356 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $334 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $119 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $334 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $615 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $556 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $289 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $294 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $287 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $300 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $572 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $299 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $586 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $292 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $305 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $283 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $282 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $299 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $594 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $568 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 4h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $62 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $11 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $123 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $55 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 18d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $37 19d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 19d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 21d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 22d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.97 · official $205.97 (match) · 296 history records