Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E3 0xe346…33d7 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$40 (+12%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$90
other 30% −$7
world 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +20.2% +8.7% 67% 67% +12.0%
≤30d 24 +20.2% +8.7% 67% 67% +12.0%
≤90d 30 +16.1% +5.0% 70% 67% +9.4%
all 30 +16.1% +5.0% 70% 67% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 67% +9.4%
10% -5.0% 53% -1.0%
15% -14.2% 43% -10.6%
20% -22.6% 30% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage80d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$30 +116%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$46 +116%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 +$5 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$9 +82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 +$4 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $24 +$20 +83%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$17 +262%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$2 -29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Nets Apr 01 $8 +$1 +7%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $8 +$1 +17%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $8 +$1 +17%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 32m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $15 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $86 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $40 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $16 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $12 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $24 2d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $23 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $6 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $8 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $8 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 80¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records