Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe342…2a23 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$36 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%36W / 84L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$113
14 days+$100
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$28
other 25% +$221
tech 21% −$22
politics 7% −$10
crypto 4% −$4
sports 3% −$154
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.8% -27.4% 12% 12% +10.8%
≤30d 53 -17.8% -25.6% 15% 2% -7.2%
≤90d 95 -12.1% -20.5% 24% 3% -9.3%
all 120 -10.9% -19.4% 30% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 5% -9.5%
10% -27.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -34.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -40.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses36 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage156d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $65 $62 −$2 (-4%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $263 +$287 +109%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $168 −$165 -98%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 18 $6 −$2 -39%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 18 $26 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $2 $0 -15%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 -4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $8 $0 -6%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? Jun 06 $28 −$6 -21%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$9 -18%
Will Trump announce Stephen Hahn as the next FDA commissioner by Decem Jun 06 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 06 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -21%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 06 $12 −$7 -61%
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30? Jun 06 $10 −$4 -42%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $11 −$2 -19%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 06 $16 −$3 -19%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 04 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11 −$2 -19%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $9 −$2 -25%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 03 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10 Jun 03 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $7 $0 +6%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $3 $0 -2%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10 Jun 03 $11 $0 -4%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 03 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$2 -8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? May 30 $16 −$4 -25%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Ma May 30 $7 $0 -5%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.8M and 6.9M in April? May 30 $5 $0 -5%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? May 30 $6 −$2 -25%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $93 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 26 $10 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $168 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $263 4d
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA SELL Yes 19¢ $4 5d
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL Yes 72¢ $14 5d
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL No 73¢ $25 5d
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 31¢ $6 5d
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 73¢ $26 5d
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 73¢ $15 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day SELL No 8¢ $2 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY No 9¢ $2 5d
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 12d
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 12d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $14 12d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 46¢ $9 12d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 46¢ $9 12d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL No 26¢ $4 12d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $14 12d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 26¢ $4 12d
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? BUY No 7¢ $1 12d
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? SELL No 7¢ $1 12d
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? BUY No 9¢ $2 12d
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 12d
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 12d
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 39¢ $8 12d
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 40¢ $8 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 1¢ $4 15d
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 16d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.05 · official $393.05 (match) · 377 history records