Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E3 0xe341…060e other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1
world 16% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +2.3% -7.4% 75% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +2.3% -7.4% 75% 0% -9.2%
all 26 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage299d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 09 $9 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Sep 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Aug 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $39 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $39 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $31 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $35 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 22d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 180d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $9 281d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $9 281d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.46 · official $39.45 (match) · 93 history records