Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe340…769d
sports · 1009 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$601 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$589 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$10
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses402 / 593
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)995 / 1009
History coverage157d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 995 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$19
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 37¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 44¢ 43¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Kings vs. Celtics Kings 19¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 47¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Clippers Bucks 14¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Raptors Raptors 48¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Rockets Pelicans 29¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hornets Knicks 48¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 25¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Pacers 14¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Lakers Bulls 18¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Thunder Thunder 57¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 44¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nets vs. Magic Nets 22¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Hawks Grizzlies 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 45¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $3 +$4 +134%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 +$3 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $3 +$5 +152%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 +$2 +134%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1 +$1 +40%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 +$1 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 +$3 +146%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2 +$3 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 +$5 +180%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $3 +$3 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1 +$1 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 +$1 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1 +$2 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $2 +$2 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $1 +$2 +188%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $2 +$2 +105%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $2 +$2 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $2 +$3 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$586
other 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $3 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $2 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $1 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $1 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $1 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 17h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $1 19h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $1 21h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $1 22h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $3 23h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $2 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $3 23h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $1 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $3 42h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $1 42h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $2 43h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $2 44h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $3 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $2 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 69¢ $2 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $1 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $1 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $2 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $2 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $2 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $2 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $1 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $2 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +13.1% +2.3% 51% 51% +5.8%
≤30d 214 +4.3% -5.7% 47% 47% -7.1%
≤90d 627 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 42% -14.3%
all 995 -4.5% -13.6% 40% 40% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 40% -21.9%
10% -21.9% 39% -29.4%
15% -29.4% 38% -36.2%
20% -36.4% 37% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.05 · official $10.05 (match) · 1504 history records