Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe33f…a059 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized −$44 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$8
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$88
sports 48% +$178
politics 1% −$10
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 37% -10.4%
≤30d 33 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 36% -8.4%
≤90d 33 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 36% -8.4%
all 33 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 36% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 36% -8.4%
10% -30.9% 27% -17.1%
15% -37.6% 24% -25.1%
20% -43.7% 24% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage9d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 +$52 +73%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $45 +$8 +17%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$15 +145%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $111 +$20 +18%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -5%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $101 +$27 +27%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$1 -3%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$16 +158%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$8 -79%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +145%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -46%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $8 +$25 +317%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 42h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 45h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 3¢ $10 46h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 46h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $43 46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 46h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 2d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $111 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $8 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 3d
France to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 3d
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $30 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.91 · official $218.10 (match) · 75 history records