Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe33e…4406 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$13
sports 21% +$19
politics 20% −$6
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 115 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage132d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $211 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $406 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $247 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $224 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $664 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $414 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $475 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $451 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $252 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $216 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 10 $254 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $427 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $458 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $199 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $415 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 07 $187 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $214 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 3h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 11h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 14h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 26h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 26h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 36h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $218 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $218 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 26d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 27d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $226 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $226 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 29d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $186 30d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 30d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $248 31d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $248 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $184 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $184 31d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $188 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 341 history records