Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe33e…3b79 weather 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%35W / 1L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% $0
crypto 33% +$2
other 21% −$5
tech 8% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 36 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -9.0%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.13 per $1 lost it wins $4.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses35 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage56d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 49¢ 54¢ $49 $54 +$6 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $20 $24 +$5 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ $24 $8 −$16 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on May 31? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 31? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 24? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 24? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 19? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 22? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22? May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 19? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 18 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on May 13? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 10? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $365 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 07 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 07 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 5? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 30? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 18d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $15 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 18d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 31d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 32d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 33d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 33d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 33d
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $40 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 38d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.20 · official $85.50 · 78 history records