Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe33d…c1fe sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$705 (-18%) realized −$691 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$523
other 15% −$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -18.1% -25.9% 31% 31% -26.4%
≤30d 48 -18.1% -25.9% 31% 31% -26.4%
≤90d 48 -18.1% -25.9% 31% 31% -26.4%
all 48 -18.1% -25.9% 31% 31% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 31% -26.4%
10% -33.0% 31% -33.4%
15% -39.5% 31% -39.8%
20% -45.4% 31% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$78 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$691
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage4d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 41¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-13%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 22¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 28¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $16 +$38 +237%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $32 −$31 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $99 −$97 -98%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $100 −$98 -98%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $99 −$98 -98%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Criciúma EC leading at halftime? Jun 27 $98 +$103 +105%
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $101 −$99 -98%
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $98 −$97 -98%
Operário Ferroviário EC leading at halftime? Jun 27 $127 −$125 -98%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $54 +$87 +162%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 +$34 +67%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $47 −$46 -98%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $95 −$95 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $102 +$121 +119%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $102 +$314 +307%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $97 −$94 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $47 −$46 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $49 +$51 +106%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $102 −$99 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $44 −$43 -99%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $103 −$100 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 −$12 -23%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$67 +134%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $46 +$33 +70%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 +$60 +118%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 +$84 +82%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $149 +$128 +86%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $96 +$452 +473%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $80 −$78 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $102 +$176 +172%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $97 +$110 +114%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $16 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $32 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $99 45h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $100 47h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $99 2d
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Criciúma EC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $201 2d
Criciúma EC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $98 2d
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $101 2d
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $98 2d
Operário Ferroviário EC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $127 2d
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $141 2d
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $85 2d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $47 2d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $103 2d
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $54 2d
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $95 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $97 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $47 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.88 · official $39.63 (match) · 72 history records