Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe33b…6358 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 29% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 7% −$1
sports 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 +0.3% -9.2% 32% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 +0.3% -9.2% 32% 0% -9.4%
all 45 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage279d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $65 −$1 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $8 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $65 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $31 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 31 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Sep 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 19? Sep 19 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $16 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $4 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $13 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $10 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $22 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $12 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $20 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $32 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $25 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $7 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $11 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $17 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $6 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $1 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $25 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $32 47h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $31 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $31 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records