Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe33a…c4ec crypto 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,918 (-21%) realized −$6,918 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%106W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day65.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$625
7 days−$625
14 days−$625
30 days−$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,675
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.0% +1.4% 50% 42% -24.1%
≤30d 12 +12.0% +1.4% 50% 42% -24.1%
≤90d 285 -7.6% -16.4% 37% 35% -19.9%
all 285 -7.6% -16.4% 37% 35% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 35% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 32% -27.6%
15% -31.7% 28% -34.6%
20% -38.4% 26% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$73 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,918
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses106 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)285 / 285
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$114
Trades / day65.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 285 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $236 +$386 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $1,131 −$1,131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $414 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $236 +$480 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $233 +$113 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$241 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $414 +$401 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $401 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 03 $3 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 01 $50 +$48 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 01 $200 −$119 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 01 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 01 $128 −$124 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 01 $202 −$36 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 01 $100 −$46 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 01 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 01 $299 −$30 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 01 $259 −$137 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $80 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records