Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe336…6fcb crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$335 (+11%) realized +$384 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$46
crypto 31% +$28
other 21% −$64
politics 2% +$2
sports 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -17.2% -25.1% 0% 0% -25.1%
≤30d 2 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 18 -23.1% -30.5% 33% 28% -8.6%
all 49 -22.4% -29.8% 33% 24% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 24% -8.4%
10% -36.5% 24% -17.2%
15% -42.6% 22% -25.2%
20% -48.3% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$28 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$384
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage122d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $41 $1 −$41 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $83 −$14 -17%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $172 +$3 +2%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $79 +$29 +37%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $73 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 16 $33 +$33 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $8 −$5 -53%
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $11 +$11 +104%
Will Trump say "Qatar" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $11 +$15 +134%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $50 −$16 -33%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? Mar 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $63 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 08 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 08 $70 −$28 -40%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 08 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $55 −$33 -59%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $420 −$199 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 06 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 06 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 06 $30 +$31 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 05 $300 +$13 +4%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $45 −$35 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 05 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $45 −$36 -79%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 04 $47 +$63 +135%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 04 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 04 $20 −$10 -49%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 03 $25 −$4 -14%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $148 +$700 +474%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $37 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $61 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $41 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 41d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 41d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $59 41d
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $79 44d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $48 46d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 51d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 17¢ $5 71d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Trail Blazers 25¢ $5 71d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 71d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 71d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $115 72d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $112 72d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $39 72d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $33 74d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 74d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 78d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.88 · official $49.88 (match) · 191 history records