Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe32e…b603 crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,054 (+5%) realized +$3,054 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate75%108W / 36L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$617
7 days+$2,392
14 days+$2,686
30 days+$2,686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2,505
other 2% +$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +4.9% -5.1% 75% 31% -5.9%
≤30d 144 +4.5% -5.4% 75% 32% -5.6%
≤90d 144 +4.5% -5.4% 75% 32% -5.6%
all 144 +4.5% -5.4% 75% 32% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 32% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 19% -14.6%
15% -22.8% 12% -22.8%
20% -30.3% 8% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$172 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,054
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses108 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage8d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $561 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $562 +$33 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $502 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $562 +$30 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $562 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $560 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $502 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $510 +$195 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $514 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $118 −$114 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $1,007 −$424 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $510 +$194 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $505 +$83 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $505 +$74 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $507 +$123 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $505 +$73 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $504 +$65 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $509 +$164 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $501 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $506 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $426 +$55 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $511 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $508 +$133 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $1,006 −$482 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $514 +$308 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $503 +$43 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $506 +$111 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $505 +$86 +17%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $503 +$39 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $1,003 +$48 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $502 +$27 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $501 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $502 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $502 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $501 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $502 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $510 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $502 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $514 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $118 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 297 history records