Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe32c…906f other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$447 (+17%) realized +$447 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$385
14 days+$449
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$776
crypto 24% −$355
politics 19% +$400
sports 8% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 35% +24.5%
≤30d 28 -22.9% -30.3% 43% 43% +18.6%
≤90d 28 -22.9% -30.3% 43% 43% +18.6%
all 29 -19.4% -27.0% 45% 45% +30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 45% +30.1%
10% -34.0% 41% +17.6%
15% -40.4% 38% +6.3%
20% -46.2% 31% -4.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +44% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$31 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage599d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $245 +$292 +119%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $199 +$452 +226%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$21 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $32 +$16 +50%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND W Jun 14 $52 +$21 +40%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $96 +$18 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $25 +$21 +82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $96 +$57 +59%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $495 +$400 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 47¢ $49 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $245 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-2 BUY 15¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $102 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $79 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 15¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 18¢ $123 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 30¢ $199 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $48.54 · 61 history records